Best Picture Nominee #9

The Wolf of Wall Street

Leonardo DiCaprio’s latest teaming with Martin Scorsese was met with huge critical acclaim, many touting The Wolf of Wall Street – the story of infamous New York stockbroker Jordan Belfort – as his best performance to date. Filled with debauchery galore and at a running time of 3 hours, Martin Scorsese delivered a true classic, with enough memorable moments which would make picking a favourite impossible. A nomination was a guaranteed welcome, but it’s doubtful anybody involved thinks they even stand a chance at a win tonight.

Film: 4.5/5

Chances of winning: 2/5

What will it win? Nothing – but it's okay; it's one of the best of the bunch and would have probably been nominated had there been the five-nomination rule.

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Best Picture Nominee #8

12 Years a Slave

Undoubtedly one of the year’s strongest nominees, 12 Years a Slave has all the makings of a Best Picture winner: the sensitive subject crafted in an articulate and astounding way by a director rapidly crawling to the top of his game. Sure, Steve McQueen has a taste for the bleak (Hunger, Shame), but this does not detract from the film’s credibility. Naturally, controversy has hit surrounding its depiction of slavery. But the fact its closest rival is fundamentally a two-hander sci-fi blockbuster speaks volumes about how interesting this year’s race is…

If I was a betting man, my money would be splashed on 12 Years a Slave to beat Gravity to the Best Picture Oscar.

Film: 4.5/5
Chances of winning: 4.5/5

What will it win? The main award of the evening (Best Picture) - yet its other two best chances are slightly shadier: Best Supporting Actress for Lupits N'yongo is threatened by Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle) in the ceremony's closest battle, and Best Adapted Screenplay for John Ridley.


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Best Picture Nominee #7

Philomena

It’s great to see Philomena amongst this year’s crop, not only alerting those who weren’t aware of an astounding true story, but championing the British side of things. Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope’s script, adapted from Martin Sixsmith’s book, tells the story of political journalist Sixsmith himself (here played by Coogan) and Philomena Lee (Dame Judi Dench), who attempts to find her son who was cruelly taken away from her five decades previous when she fell pregnant in a convent. The film is fantastic, putting the audience through countless emotions all at once, but the nomination - sadly - is a case of filler.  

Film: 4.5/5
Chances of winning: 1/5

What will it win? The suspicious has sneaked in how Philomena could pull a blinder in the Adapted Screenplay category, snatching the statuette away from John Ridley for 12 Years a Slave. It's a big shout, one that would be praised, but when it comes down to it, may just be too good to be true.
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Best Picture Nominee #6

Nebraska

Alexander Payne is no stranger to the Academy (Sideways, The Descendants, etc.) so a nomination for the heartwarming Nebraska was not a leftfield appearance – but is an outside bet. Not to take anything away from the film, Nebraska is shot in black and white, and stars Best Actor nominee Bruce Dern as Woody Grant, a stubborn, senility-stricken pensioner who is convinced he has landed a windfall of cash when a leaflet telling him so falls through his front door.

Film: 4/5
Chances of winning: 2/5

What will it win? Nebraska will walk away empty handed. 

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Best Picture Nominee #5

Her

The cult following behind Spike Jonze’s Her carves this out as the underdog of the year. A futuristic tale, the film follows Joaquin Phoenix's Theodore, a man who enters a relationship with an Operating System (seductively voiced by Scarlett Johansson), a machine designed to keep people company and meet their every need. It’s unfortunate to have to discount a film so easily - however a win is near impossible. Success for Jonez’s original screenplay has the potential to prove one of the more popular wins of the night.

Film: 3.5/5
Chances of winning: 2/5

What will it win? Though American Hustle is its closest competitor, it seems Original Screenplay is Spike Jonze's to lose.

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Best Picture Nominee #4

Gravity

Alfonso Cuarón’s space spectacle has proved a mammoth success all-round; critics adored it and audiences lapped it up, immersing themselves into the rollercoaster ride of a film in their millions. Stripping the bravado away, a question is raised as to whether Gravity floats as well, but regardless the film remains one side of this year’s fight. Tying as the ceremony’s lead nominee, the good money would be put on Gravity to be the evening’s biggest winner – however, a best picture win will be one too many. Cuarón looks set to pull an Ang Lee (Life of Pi) and scoop Best Director for the sheer mind-boggling scope of what is unarguably the most visually impressive film in quite some time.

Film: 4.5/5
Chances of winning: 4/5

What will it win? Well, where do we start? Best Director, a Cinematography win for Emmanuel Lubezki, Film Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects. A win for Steven Price in the Original Score category solidifies this as Gravity's evening, despite 12 Years a Slave scooping the main prize.



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Best Picture Nominee #3

Dallas Buyers Club

Every year, the awards circuit features an underdog in the truest form, and in Dallas Buyers Club, we have the little film that could. Telling the story of AIDS sufferer Ron Woodroff, and his attempts to work around the medical system in order to share the right medication with fellow patients, Matthew McConaughey stars in a lead role that continues to solidify his position as one of Hollywood’s elite. An Oscar nomination for the film was a nice touch, especially considering it's one of the more heartfelt films in the category, however a win is hugely unlikely. It’s down to the two lead stars (Jared Leto, starring alongside McConaughey in a remarkable turn) to sweep up one half of this year’s acting categories.

Film: 4/5

Chances of winning: 2/5

What will it win? As mentioned above, McConaughey and Leto look set to run away with the Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor award. A nomination alongside Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa and The Lone Ranger in Best Makeup and Hairstyling could see Dallas Buyers Club emerge as one of the night's biggest winners. A Tonto-shaped upset could prevent that, though...

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Best Picture Nominee #2

Captain Phillips

It was almost a breath of fresh air to see Captain Phillips nominated for Best Picture on announcement day, enhanced even more so when Tom Hanks’ baffling lack of appearance in the Actor category hit (for the final five minutes alone, he would have been the worthiest of winners...). Paul Greengrass’ taut, thrilling feature (and by thrilling, read: so tense it will leave you speechless) wracked nerves like no other. Setting the true-to-life story of Hanks’ Captain Richard Phillips, whose cargo ship is held captive by Somali pirates, Greengrass barks down those who mauled the underrated Green Zone (2010) through deliverance of one of the films of last year. Its chances of winning are slim, yet its inclusion remains well deserved; a reminder that the best films do get nominated - let's just ignore Inside Llewyn Davis' snub.

Film: 4.5/5

Chances of winning: 2/5

What will it win? Nada. Unfortunately, Barkhad Abdi won't replicate his BAFTA win for Supporting Actor here.

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Best Picture Nominee #1

This year's Oscar race is perhaps the most interesting one in sometime; what is fundamentally a two-horse race, there are a whole array of other eclectic nominees which ensures the annual ceremony remains an exciting one. Time for analysis...

American Hustle  

David O. Russell's tale, loosely based on the FBI ABSCAM operation of the 70s, is something of an enigma. The film isn't bad - it remains, in fact, great fun - and it’s not that the film doesn't deserve awards recognition. But somehow, for a film that happens to be tied at having the most nominations (with Gravity, fact fans), its severe lack of heart remains a problem. With O. Russell clearly loitering in voter’s regards following 2012's Silver Linings Playbook, the fact remains that American Hustle is quite the contender. If anything, the wheels are in motion for Jennifer Lawrence to steal the Supporting Actress gong from right under the nose of Lupita N’yongo (12 Years a Slave), perhaps lessening its chances in the Best Pic category. Let it be said: a shock upset isn't on the cards, however there's no denying the film's continued prowess throughout the entire awards season. Would it have been nominated had simply five films made the cut? Certainly. Yet is it the weakest one out of this year's bunch? Definitely.

Film: 3.5/5

Chances of winning: 3/5

What will it win? Its best bets are success in the Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay and Costume Design category - my prediction is that N'yongo will reign supreme in the evening's closest battle, and Her will take the Original Screenplay crown. Costume Design it is.

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Oscar Nominations 2014 - Jacob Predicts...

The Golden Globes have been and gone, with the BAFTA jury out until the ceremony in February. You can eye roll. You can sigh. You can pfft all you want. The Academy Awards - presented by Ellen DeGeneres on Sunday 2nd March - are the master of them all. With Oscar nominations poised to be announced tomorrow, I assess the films, actors, actresses and directors I believe will come away with a chance at claiming a golden baldie come March.

Best Picture:

Get ready for a two-horse race with 12 Years a Slave currently edging Gravity, with help from its Golden Globe win on Sunday night. Coming up the outskirts though, we have American Hustle, building stead and proving itself as a worthy opponent. The other two dead certs for a nomination are Nebraska and The Wolf of Wall Street - no surprise considering one is an Alexander Payne film and the other a Martin Scorsese.

The Coen Brothers won in 2008 for No Country for Old Men, and every film of theirs since has featured in the extended nominations list. Inside Llewyn Davis will be no different. Expect to see Captain Phillips there also; it was nominated at the Globes, is up for a BAFTA and would be a damned worthy appearance. The nomination list doesn't necessarily have to be 10 films, but let's go under the impression there will be... Spike Jonze's latest Her will probably tail the nominations. The tough one is whose shoes will fill that final nomination. Will the Academy buckle and go with The Butler? Or will Philomena rear its British head? Other films that are sure to get Oscar recognition have a shot too (Dallas Buyers Club, August: Osage County).

My Prediction: American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Her, Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska, Philomena, 12 Years a Slave, The Wolf of Wall Street

Shock Omission: The Butler

Best Actor:
An extremely easy category to call, surely all of these are going to be nominated? Other surprising, but not unwelcome entrants would include Joaquin Phoenix (Her), Forest Whitaker (The Butler), Christian Bale (American Hustle) and Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis). In fact, don't be surprised if Bale makes it on there what with the glory American Hustle has been receiving. As for who he would replace, I don't even want to hazard a guess. The person who should be nominated - Robert Redford for his incredible, largely-silent performance in All Is Lost - will be snubbed.

My Prediction:

Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips, Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club, Bruce Dern - Nebraska, Chiwetel Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave, Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street

Shock Omission: Robert Redford - All Is Lost

Best Actress:
We can probably call off all bets now, right? Cate Blanchett has this one (and so she should) - however, as for who will be set up for disappointment is another question entirely. Surely Meryl Streep is a nomination shoo-in because Meryl Streep has delivered a good performance this year, as is Sandra Bullock for carrying what many perceive to be 2013's greatest film. It would be nice for Judi Dench and Emma Thompson repping the British side of things for their fantastic appearances as Philomena Lee and Mary Poppins author P.L. Travers, respectively. But American Hustle has something over voters, and this will trounce somebody's chance of a nomination - Amy Adams is in (especially considering her many nominations and Golden Globe win), and shockingly, I predict Streep will be out.  

My Prediction:

Amy Adams - American Hustle, Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine, Sandra Bullock - Gravity, Judi Dench - Philomena, Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks

Shock Omission: Meryl Streep - August: Osage County

Best Supporting Actor:If American Hustle deserves one nomination, and I never thought I'd catch myself saying this, it's for Bradley Cooper who manages to steal every scene he's in. Jared Leto's Dallas Buyers Club Golden Globe win has just sealed the fact his name will be read by presenter Chris Hemsworth on Thursday, and these Supporting categories love a newcomer... so step forward, Barkhad Abdi who deserves some form of accolade for appearing unfazed opposite Tom Hanks, let alone his gripping performance as a Somali Pirate in Captain Phillips. I'm hoping that this is the year Michael Fassbender's incredible acting skills are rewarded with some recognition - delivering a harrowing performance in 12 Years a Slave. You'd be brave to not expect Jonah Hill to build on his former nomination (for Moneyball) in Scorsese's The Wolf of Wall Street. Things appear clear-cut here, but could Steve Coogan pull a blinder for Philomena? Or will Daniel Brühl's portrayal of F1 racer Niki Lauda be lauded, despite a poor box office performance for Rush in the States? I'm discounting Tom Hanks' slim-pickings performance as Walt Disney in Saving Mr. Banks right now, as well as a posthumous appearance from the late James Gandolfini (Enough Said).  

My Prediction:

Bradley Cooper - American Hustle, Barkhad Abdi - Captain Phillips, Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club, Daniel Brühl - Rush, Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave   

Shock Omission: Jonah Hill - The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Supporting Actress:
Alongside guaranteed nominees - awards darling Jennifer Lawrence and beloved newcomer Lupita Nyong'o - expect appearances from some very credible actresses who delivered top-rate performances. June Squibb was electric, lighting up the black-and-white bleakness of Nebraska, whilst Sally Hawkins did an incredible job at playing the polar opposite to Blanchett's Blue Jasmine. Julia Roberts has stepped up to the plate in the Harvey Weinstein-produced August: Osage County, as has The Butler's Oprah Winfrey. Only five can be nominated however, and I'm saying Hawkins will wrongfully be ousted.

My Prediction: Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle, Julia Roberts - August: Osage County, Oprah Winfrey - The Butler, June Squibb - Nebraska, Lupita Nyong’o - 12 Years a Slave

Shock Omission: Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine   

Best Director:
Clear as day, the below five directors will be nominated come tomorrow. All displayed stellar work in fantastic films, and will continue to do so. Lee Daniels, Alexander Payne and the Coen Brothers have a slim chance of causing a shock announcement (remember that time Chris Nolan never got nominated for Inception?), but it's doubtful. 

My Prediction:

David O. Russell - American Hustle, Paul Greengrass - Captain Phillips, Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity, Steve McQueen - 12 Years a Slave, Martin Scorsese - The Wolf of Wall Street

Shock Omission: Alexander Payne - Nebraska  

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Oscar Best Picture Rundown #9:

ZERO DARK THIRTY

 Kathryn Bigelow’s first film since her Oscar winning turn behind the camera for The Hurt Locker  three years back, Zero Dark Thirty tracks the ten year hunt for Osama Bin Laden as led by Jessica Chastain’s Maya, a fiercely determined CIA operative. It seems to be that every year the Academy opts to pinpoint one film and shed controversial light over it, thus ruining its chances. This year,Bigelow’s thrillingly brilliant film is the victim, with several members requesting their fellow Academy members to boycott this film due to its depiction of torture. Shameful, considering the final hour of this film is the most thrilling hour of all the films nominated.

Will it win?

Once upon a time, it was a contender. It’s a crying shame – and a disservice to the past year in film – that it no longer is. The controversy has really damaged its chances, with the final nail in the coffin coming in the form of Bigelow not receiving a nomination in the Directing category. Many of the Academy members who spoke out about Zero Dark Thirty have since spoken out about their comments, stating they didn’t mean what they said… Alas, the damage had been done.

Film: 5/5
Chances of Winning: 2.5/5

Read my Zero Dark Thirty review here

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Oscars Best Picture Rundown #8:

SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

David O. Russell’s first film since The Fighter was somewhat different to what everybody expected the guy to do, but his ever-present quirkiness is definitely embraced in Silver Linings Playbook, a charming comedy-drama about Bradley Cooper’s Pat who clashes with Jennifer Lawrence’s Tiffany following a stint in a mental institution. What ensues is an electrical on-screen chemistry - which is probably to thank for its huge success in the nominations.

Will it win?

I’ve said Argo is the former dark horse… Well, Silver Linings Playbook is officially the new one going into the ceremony. With the backing of producing and campaigning heavyweight Harvey Weinstein, the film could very well find awards glory tonight; Silver Linings is the first film to be nominated in all 5 main categories since Clint Eastwood’s Million Dollar Baby in 2006, so it’s carrying quite some heft. When you bear in mind that the winner of Best Editing has more often than not gone on to win Best Picture also, its appearance in this category should have  ensured  the film was an odds-on favourite. As it stands, its best chance of picking something up tonight goes to the fantastic Jennifer Lawrence for Best Actress, despite fierce competition.

Film: 4/5
 Chances of Winning: 3.5/5

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Oscar Best Picture Rundown #7:

 LINCOLN

When recounting the synopsis of each nominee, it’d be easy to assume Lincoln has won this race already; a grandiose focus on American president Abraham Lincoln – played by two-time winner, Daniel Day-Lewis – and his plan to both abolish slavery and end the Civil War, directed by Steven Spielberg. The screenplay cleverly encapsulates just a few months of the President’s life, meaning tension is squeezed out of a renowned historical turning point in America’s history, directed with a detached skill by one of the world's most famous directors. It's epic (in length) and oh-so talky... a true actor's film rather than a cinematic experience.

Will it win?

Let me put it this way; if Argo doesn’t win, Lincoln will. It sounds like a sitter. Day-Lewis is a shoo-in for Best Actor (him and Anne Hathaway for Les Mis can sit very tight tonight,) and Spielberg will be providing close battle in the Directing category – but the Academy seems to be favouring underdogs this year - well, in the nominations, at least. My call is that Lincoln won’t be winning half as much as everybody first expected it to, perhaps providing the biggest upset of the ceremony.

My Guess: Big shout, but nothing other than Best Actor for Daniel Day-Lewis 

Film: 4/5 
Chances of Winning: 4/5


Read my Lincoln review here

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Oscar Best Picture Rundown #6:

LIFE OF PI 

Out of all the nominees, Life of Pi has hauled in the most money at the box office, Ang Lee’s translation of Yann Martel’s ‘unfilmable’ novel proving – after all – very filmable, and equally as watchable. A success for all ages, its Oscar recognition was probable, especially in the technical categories. Ang Lee himself notched up a third nomination in the Directing category (his previous for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and Brokeback Mountain - the latter for which he won.) Wholly deserved, he proved with Life of Pi he could juggle a huge budget, whilst dabbling in the realm of 3D – and still deliver a visually-awesome crowd-pleaser. Would have loved to see Richard Parker nominated, alas.

Will it win?

Considering my money is on Ang Lee to take the Best Director award from under Spielberg’s nose, its chances are raised… However, I’m sold on the fact that this year the winner of Best Director won’t be won by the filmmaker behind the Best Picture – so, its chances dwindle with that in mind. It has the Hugo appeal, but that film didn’t quite pip The Artist to the post last year.

Film: 4/5 
Chances of Winning: 3/5


Read my Life of Pi review here

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Oscar Best Picture Rundown #5

LES MISÉRABLES 

A film adaptation of mammoth musical Les Miserables (itself an adaptation of the Victor Hugo novel,) directed by a previous Oscar winner (The King’s Speech’s Tom Hooper) was always going to bait the Academy. Throw in the mixer the fact that this is the ‘first’ film to have had its actors sing on-set live (to this scale, anyway,) and the blistering performances – namely from the deadest cert of the night, Anne Hathaway (she’ll scoop Best Supporting Actress.)

Will it win?

This is the strange thing – no. It isn’t even deemed a frontrunner. In a year where Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, and now Argo, have been firmly fixed on everybody’s lips, Les Misérables has been largely ignored. In a sense, this means good ‘ole Les Mis could pose a threat – but it probably won’t. Hooper missing out on a Director nomination for a film directed better than the one he won for pretty much confirms this. This doesn't stop me having a strange feeling about it though.

Film: 4/5
Chances of Winning: 3/5 


Read my Les Misérables review here

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